- US markets closed at another record high.
- Asian markets are mostly positive.
- Indian markets are struggling.
- SGX Nifty is up by 30 Points.
- The talk of the Town is SEBI pledging & Margin rules.
- SEBI Regulations have bought in too many complications for traders who trade with higher capital.
- Monday Markets fell Drastically most of it was due to SEBI pledging rules & some of it was Indo - China news.
- Nifty is doing better but Bank Nifty has not been doing well.
- In fact, yesterday, whole day it was trading with negative bias, only in last one hour, it moved.
- Yesterday night, though European and US markets were higher, SGX Nifty was very weak, traded below 11500.
- Let us try to understand what is happening.
- Right now, we are not worried about Global cues, worried about local cues.
- The AGR case finally came to an end but not loan moratorium case.
- The hearing continues today at 2 pm.
- Another reason for huge volatility in the last one hour of today's trade.
- But that affects only Bank Nifty.
- But what is happening to the overall market.
- Last time, news broke out that there was a stand off between Chinese and Indian troops at Doklam.
- During that period, in fact ever since that incident, Indian markets are looking for clue form Hong Kong, rather than Asia.
- Since the problem is between India and China, China markets being highly regulated, controlled, Hong Kong is seen as a proxy for real situation in China.
- So we follow Hong Kong markets closely.
- When all European and US markets were higher significantly, SGX Nifty was down more than 80 points as Hong Kong Futures was down.
- Even today morning, though Asian markets all positive, Hong Kong opened negative, SGX Nifty was negative.
- Now Hong Kong is improving, so the SGX Nifty.
- Hong Kong turned positive, so SGX Nifty also turned positive.
- We are clearly under performing world markets due to India-China border issue.
- Markets are worried, suddenly, either side may report some casualty and tensions may increase.
- Markets will slowly catch up, if there are no negative news from border front.
- That will take time, may be one or two weeks.
- If markets resume its up trend, then Bank Nifty is likely to out perform.
- Bank Nifty is so highly volatile due to Illiquidity that 200-300 Point moves are happening in 5 minutes.
- One should be very very cautious while trading in such situations.
- There are so many issues which are persisting right now.
- Firstly , the Pledging issues.
- Many of our clients have applied for Pledge request but it's still not being accepted.
- Expecting today to be a choppy day.
- Choppy days are when are Markets do not give a big move in either direction and Trade flat throughout.
- Trend still remains intact & there's nothing to worry.
- Bank Nifty firstly took Nifty higher but now it's under performing significantly.
- Expecting more of this continue.
- Consult your Financial Advisor & Trade on your risk.
- Nifty might between 11420-11600.
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Winners and Losers in the Market a. Who is dominating the current swing, bulls or bears? b. Are they correct? c. If they‟re wrong: i. Where is this move likely to stall? Where is the opposite order flow likely to enter the market? ii. Where will these traders have positioned their stops? d. If they‟re right: i. Where are these traders targeting? Where are they going to take profits or lighten their position? e. If they‟re in the right direction, but late: i. Where is the worst place to be entering late in this move? Where will the late traders be stopped out? Trapped Traders a. Where is the last group of trapped traders? b. Where are they hoping to get out? How will that affect price? c. Where will they give up and bail out? How will that affect price? Expectations - Most Likely Price Movement a. What do you expect the market to do from here? i. Why do you expect that? ii. How would price have to behave prior to that move occurring? iii. Is price behaving this way? b. If the most ...
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