- markets closed higher.
- World markets are stabilising after two weeks of down trend.
- Asian markets are mixed.
- Japan is down while most other Asian markets are up.
- Yesterday, huge intraday selling was a surprise.
- In fact, we had many such intraday falls in last two months.
- The severe one was on last Monday when Nifty fell from 11800 to 11350.
- Now SGX Nifty is trading about 30 points higher.
- IT stocks shot up after guidance from HCL Tech.
- IT stocks shot up despite appreciation in Rupee.
- Banking stocks are the main drag.
- From September series high, Bank Nifty is down more than 3000 points.
- That is about 15%.
- HDFC Bank lead the fall.
- First half the Markets were flat but we Witnessed big selling pressure in second half.
- This was a Total Surprise.
- Bank Nifty fell by more than 400 Points in about half an hour & Nifty by 100 Points.
- Maybe S&P fitch negative outlook on the Economy was the reason for this sell off.
- But later durring the day we recovered 50% of the losses as well.
- So it was a high Volatile day yesterday.
- India VIX from Negative 1% was up 3% at one point of time.
- From last 1 Month these sudden Intraday collapses have been happening without any major reason
- CPI Inflation data came slightly better than expected yesterday evening.
- Just now, China Industrial production data also came better than expected.
- US futures turned positive after this data.
- Despite such a big intraday fall, FIIs were net buyers in Cash market yesterday.
- DII selling is very little.
- So yesterday's fall was not because of Institutions.
- Reliance is consolidating around 2300.
- Mid caps and small caps did very well yesterday.
- That is due to the expected demand from Multi Cap funds.
- Markets were highly volatile for last two weeks.
- But after more than two weeks, Nifty is still around 11500.
- But the premiums did not come down much due to increase in India VIX.
- We can expect some big move only next week.
- This week, consolidation may continue.
- Nifty future may trade between 11400 and 11580.
- Bank Nifty is very very weak and unable to sustain at higher levels.
- As soon as Bank Nifty pullback comes , big selling is witnessed.
- Yesterday we found support on Nifty near 11400.
- This is a very important short term support and every dip should be bought into.
- Nifty might Trade between 11380-11560 today.
Winners and Losers in the Market a. Who is dominating the current swing, bulls or bears? b. Are they correct? c. If they‟re wrong: i. Where is this move likely to stall? Where is the opposite order flow likely to enter the market? ii. Where will these traders have positioned their stops? d. If they‟re right: i. Where are these traders targeting? Where are they going to take profits or lighten their position? e. If they‟re in the right direction, but late: i. Where is the worst place to be entering late in this move? Where will the late traders be stopped out? Trapped Traders a. Where is the last group of trapped traders? b. Where are they hoping to get out? How will that affect price? c. Where will they give up and bail out? How will that affect price? Expectations - Most Likely Price Movement a. What do you expect the market to do from here? i. Why do you expect that? ii. How would price have to behave prior to that move occurring? iii. Is price behaving this way? b. If the most ...
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